ROME / RankWire.AI / – The global cereal output in 2026 is projected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s historic peak. The Food and Agriculture Organization reported that this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes less than its July forecast, reflecting an annual drop of 61.1 million tonnes and marking the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Estimated maize production for 2026 stands at 1.309 billion tonnes following diminished crop prospects that led to a downward revision of previous figures. Summer heatwaves and drought conditions adversely affected yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also prompted smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. In contrast, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-anticipated yields, which are expected to result in well-above-average maize harvests in 2026 for both countries.
Forecasts for world wheat production now stand at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Improved yield outlooks lifted projections for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Russia and Ukraine’s output forecasts have also grown, whereas dry weather conditions led to reduced expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite this upward revision, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines drive downward revision in global cereal outlook
The FAO now expects world rice production to reach 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis for the 2026/27 season, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. Updated data for Myanmar and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka supported this latest estimate. These gains counterbalance reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total global cereal consumption in 2026/27 to hit 2.965 billion tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are expected to rise, wheat use is forecast to fall from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed consumption remains vital for coarse grains, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal reserves remain at historically comfortable levels
Cereal stocks worldwide at the end of the 2027 seasons are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio globally is expected to be 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% last season. Wheat reserves are set to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have led to a more cautious outlook for overall stock levels.
The forecast for global cereal trade in 2026/27 is 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, the total remains below the record volume of 2025/26. A significant portion of this increase is due to stronger maize exports, with Argentina anticipated to ship up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.